Well, it probably helps to read the article. Because the sales slow down is not compared to previous months as many of you thought, it's in comparison to the same timeframe for BOPS last year
To whit:
Previous analyst predictions were right: it looks like ongoing sales of the annual Call of Duty franchise are beginning to slow down.
Life-to-date sales of 2011's entry Modern Warfare 3 are behind where 2010's Black Ops was at this time last year, despite the former having a stronger debut.
While exact sales numbers are not public, analysts at Macquarie Equities say that Modern Warfare 3 volume sales are behind by around 4.2 percent.
Notably, March sales in particular were damning, with last month's sales of Modern Warfare 3 reportedly less than half the amount that Black Ops sold at that time last year.
Analysts at PiperJaffray say that these numbers could indicate significant changes in the market: specifically, the firm believes that casual players -- those who don't necessarily purchase a game at launch -- are buying less games at retail, and are instead using their consoles primarily for video streaming and other forms of media consumption.
Webush Securities analyst Michael Pachter added that March's weak performance could indicate that software sales are becoming more reliant on new releases, meaning consumers are less often buying games after their initial debut.
Publisher Activision Blizzard does not rely entirely on boxed retail sales for Call of Duty revenue. In fact, 34 percent of the company's revenue in its last fiscal quarter came from digital sales, much of that from the 1.5 million annual premium subscribers to its Call of Duty Elite service.
so... is it the economy? Or is it the game play? Probably the former as the hard core players bought the title out-right... the "late adopters" to MW3 usually are the more casual type plus those with new console systems... which are also slowing down in sales as the current gen platforms have gotten old and have a high household penetration rate.
Interesting to note that activision makes a truckload from elite and DLC. Wow. 1.5MM times $60... a cool $90 mill a year for running a marginal website and having some oneline tournaments. The profit margin on that business must be ludicrous.
But it does beg the question... has COD "jumped the shark"? All entertainment properties do, eventually. Think... American Idol. Jumped the shark years ago. Or Survivor. Still legitmate businesses, but clearly past their peak.
BOPS2 launch will be heavily watched to see this effect. You can bet your lunch money that Activision's stock will be highly dependent on BOPS2 making a big launch. They will probably spend appropriately on the marketing/advertising front to try and ensure that.
